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SpaceCowboy
QUOTE(Arturo_Vandelay @ Aug 21 2006, 01:54 PM) [snapback]232632[/snapback]

I don't see war as a useful rallying tool. I hear about it, but as far as I can tell it's mostly just a huge risk for very little payoff. It's much easier just to pass a law that helps a special interest made up of real voters and pander based on it.

People vote their wallets more than anything else.

They do indeed. I reject the claims that Iraq was attacked for political purposes back home, too. If it was, it sure blew up in their faces.
davisął
QUOTE(SpaceCowboy @ Aug 21 2006, 01:57 PM) [snapback]232633[/snapback]

They do indeed. I reject the claims that Iraq was attacked for political purposes back home, too. If it was, it sure blew up in their faces.



Of course the war was certainly launched partially for domestic political purposes. They shrieked that treasonous Saddamite BS out like banshees. They most certainly did use the war as a political tool. That is so obvious you'd have to be blind not to see it. It didn't quite blow up in their face either. SCOTUS picks, congress and the presidency as a payoff. The war and terror scared people to death. Mushroom cloud anyone?


If it wasn't for the cries of homo they'd have failed.


You give those jerks too much credit space.

"You don't rollout a new product in August." You remember that kind of sheit? I do. Seems like US citizens' memories are the shortest I've ever seen. My god, how many examples of that sheit do you need?

blink.gif blink.gif

After 5 years of war mongering BS you think some people would figure the political angle out.

Users and manipulators. They use everything as a political weapon.
Repub_Bub
QUOTE(davisął @ Aug 21 2006, 02:10 PM) [snapback]232651[/snapback]

The war and terror scared people to death...If it wasn't for the cries of homo they'd have failed.

What a dumbass, that davis.
davisął
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Nomarchy
QUOTE
People vote their wallets more than anything else.


Shows you how pathetic the Dem party has been, then.



QUOTE(Repub_Bub @ Aug 21 2006, 02:13 PM) [snapback]232654[/snapback]

What a dumbass, that davis.


What a maLAkas that Repub Bub is . . .

Bart Katz
QUOTE(Repub_Bub @ Aug 21 2006, 04:13 PM) [snapback]232654[/snapback]

What a dumbass, that davis.

Nomarchy
What a maLAkas, that Repub Bub
patheticJT
Why would Iran be a threat to anyone? we all know that Iraq wasnt a threat. no threat whatsoever.

N
O
N
E
.
judy
QUOTE(patheticJT @ Aug 20 2006, 06:58 PM) [snapback]232435[/snapback]

the only war they wont cut and run from is the one against christians Jews, and walmart. mad.gif mad.gif


And Booooooosh lied and people died!
judy
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Carol

Iran ready for 'serious' nuke talks
Iran said yesterday that it was ready for "serious negotiations" over its disputed nuclear programs, but showed no sign it accepted the Bush administration's bottom-line demand to halt all uranium enrichment before any talks can begin.
The United States and its allies were still studying Tehran's long-awaited response to an incentives package designed to halt what many think is a drive by the Islamic republic to acquire nuclear weapons.
The Iranian reply, hand-delivered by top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani in Tehran yesterday, sets up a potential confrontation at the U.N. Security Council, where the United States is expected to press its reluctant partners for fresh sanctions against Tehran. Russia, China and European Union powers France, Germany and Britain are working with the United States on the Iran crisis.
White House spokeswoman Dana Perino declined comment on the details of the Iranian response, which had not been released as of last night. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice reportedly has interrupted a vacation to monitor the negotiations.
EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said the detailed Iranian note deserved "detailed and careful analysis," but European diplomats briefed on the reply and Iran's semi-official Fars news agency said Tehran had rejected an enrichment freeze as a precondition for starting the talks.
Despite Mr. Larijani's proposal for further talks, one top U.S. nuclear specialist said the Iranian offer was clearly a rejection of the U.S. stand.
"The bottom line is that the one thing we required Iran to do -- suspend uranium-enrichment programs now -- is the one thing the Iranians say they won't do," said Jon Wolfsthal, nonproliferation fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"Anything that wasn't an absolute 'yes' constitutes a 'no,' and the question now becomes: Where does the United States go from here and can it bring its partners along," he added.
Iran insists its nuclear programs are for peaceful civilian uses, but the United States and its European allies say it has run a secret military nuclear program for nearly two decades. With the Bush administration's acquiescence, the European Union in June offered Iran a package of trade, security and diplomatic concessions -- including direct U.S.-Iranian talks -- in exchange for a freeze on uranium enrichment.
The Security Council last month set a deadline of Aug. 31 for Iran to give a final response to the package. John R. Bolton, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, called the offer "very generous," and said Washington was prepared to press for new sanctions if Iran does not accept the enrichment freeze.
"I think we will be prepared to move to submit elements of a resolution to the [Security Council] very quickly," he told reporters in New York. "It really is a test for the council, and we'll see how it responds."
But Mr. Wolfsthal and others said the administration likely will face resistance from Russia and China for harsher penalties. Both have extensive energy and economic ties with Iran, and both could argue that Tehran's qualified response yesterday is enough to justify more talks.
In Beijing today, China's foreign ministry urged Iran to consider international concerns over its nuclear program and be constructive, but added all sides should remain calm.
The foreign ministry said it had received Iran's response to a package of proposals to resolve the nuclear standoff with the West and was "conscientiously" studying it.
"The Chinese side hopes Iran earnestly considers the concerns of the international community, and takes the necessary constructive steps," the ministry said in a faxed statement.
Top Iranian officials, including supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have sent signals in recent days that they would not accept as a pre-condition the uranium-enrichment suspension -- a critical step in producing fuel both for nuclear power and nuclear bombs. They also have questioned promises in the proposal of foreign offers to build nuclear power plants inside Iran.
Iranian officials once again mixed defiance with conciliation in trying to head off new U.N. sanctions, but they also appeared to think recent difficulties in Iraq and Lebanon for the United States and its allies have only strengthened Tehran's hand.
"We are not in an unfavorable position, since today everyone is aware of the ineffectiveness of the Security Council," Ali Akbar Velayati, Ayatollah Khamenei's top foreign policy adviser, said in a newspaper interview in Tehran.
Iranian officials offered no details of the response, but it appeared geared at enticing those countries into further negotiations by offering a broad set of proposals vague enough to hold out hope of progress in resolving the standoff.
If the Iranians leave the door open to halting enrichment as talks progress, that would drive a wedge in the Security Council between the Americans, British and French on one side and the Russians and Chinese on the other.
http://www.washtimes.com/functions/print.p...22-115538-2012r

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Okay. According to Iran, they haven't been serious about their insistence in continuing their development of nuclear weapons. I can only surmise that the incentives already proposed aren't sweet enough. One has to wonder if push will come to shove instead of carrot cake.


davisął
Bush has no carrots. He wants death. No doubt with the help of fine upstanding men of Christ like the Repugnants in the party he'll get as much blood and death as he wants. More than anyone wants.


I think the next nuke strike won't be from terrorists, it'll be a twisted, corrupted evangelical like shrub who'll be responsible.
davisął
They are ready to do some bombing.


Tuesday, August 22, 2006

POINT OF NO RETURN IN THE IRAN NUCLEAR CRISIS...? [Mario Loyola]
I am trying to track down more on this AP story by George Jahn, who is based in Vienna (where the IAEA is) and has written pretty extensively about Iran's nuclear program. The story in essence is that Iran appears to have blocked access by IAEA inspectors to an underground facility where it has been enriching uranium. So far as I know, both the U.S. government and the IAEA are refusing to comment on the story. But if true, this represents a point of no return, which Iran has staged deliberately to catch us off guard while everyone is studying its lengthy answer to the EU3+3 offer. In my piece in the current (August 28) print edition of National Review, I described precisely this eventuality as a point of no return, and argued that the United States should invoke preemption if this ever happened.


Iran is now moving fast to produce as much lightly enriched uranium as it can. According to Valerie Lincy of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, once Iran has a large-enough batch, it will be a short step to convert it to weapons grade. If Iran then expels the IAEA inspectors, no one knows how long it would take for them to produce enough for a nuclear device. We will from that point forward be living with an intolerable uncertainty. Under these circumstances, the U.S. should make clear that it will consider any further Iranian violation of the nonproliferation treaty an act of armed aggression within Article 51 of the U.N. Charter.


Iran's barring access to weapons inspectors is the same as expelling them for all practical purposes unless the inspectors are allowed to continue inspecting immediately. This is the warning flag. If this story is true, we should bomb the facilities right now. Article 51 of the U.N. Charter preserves the right of self-defense in cases of armed aggression. For Iran to hide a batch of LEU is not only a violation of the nonproliferation treaty, but also, strategically speaking, an act of armed aggression, because it is the last moment at which the scope of Iran's enrichment activities can be known with any certainty. Assuming the story is true, if we don't attack now, the optimal window for self-defense will close and any future military operation may have to be much more expansive in scope and would have a greatly diminished probability of success. At least now we know where this batch of LEU is. Within days the batch could be at another — totally clandestine — facility. And we will then find ourselves in a brave new world.
Posted at 5:22 PM

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Y...GIzMzViMjAyMjY=
Repub_Bub
QUOTE(davisął @ Aug 23 2006, 04:56 AM) [snapback]233220[/snapback]

They are ready to do some bombing.

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Death to Iran...Death to Iran.
Arturo_Vandelay
QUOTE(Carol @ Aug 23 2006, 04:29 AM) [snapback]233211[/snapback]



Okay. According to Iran, they haven't been serious about their insistence in continuing their development of nuclear weapons. I can only surmise that the incentives already proposed aren't sweet enough. One has to wonder if push will come to shove instead of carrot cake.




Maybe if we give them nukes they'll give up nuclear development. I think that was the Clinton plan for North Korea.
arebuntz
QUOTE(Arturo_Vandelay @ Aug 23 2006, 01:58 PM) [snapback]233299[/snapback]

Maybe if we give them nukes they'll give up nuclear development. I think that was the Clinton plan for North Korea.

Depends on how we "deliver" them...
SherryB
QUOTE(arebuntz @ Aug 23 2006, 04:27 PM) [snapback]233330[/snapback]

Depends on how we "deliver" them...



The two faces of Rumsfeld

2000: director of a company which wins $200m contract to sell nuclear reactors to North Korea

2002: declares North Korea a terrorist state, part of the axis of evil and a target for regime change

Randeep Ramesh

Friday May 9, 2003

The Guardian


Donald Rumsfeld confused Iraq with Afghanistan yesterday.

"Donald Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary, sat on the board of a company which three years ago sold two light water nuclear reactors to North Korea - a country he now regards as part of the "axis of evil" and which has been targeted for regime change by Washington because of its efforts to build nuclear weapons.
Mr Rumsfeld was a non-executive director of ABB, a European engineering giant based in Zurich, when it won a $200m (Ł125m) contract to provide the design and key components for the reactors. The current defence secretary sat on the board from 1990 to 2001, earning $190,000 a year. He left to join the Bush administration."


Rumsfeld "delivered" alright. laugh.gif The Russians want to build the Iranian facilities, maybe Rummie is just jealous. He and Halliburton's Cheney didn't get the contract fast enough.







roserose
QUOTE(davisął @ Aug 23 2006, 06:38 AM) [snapback]233214[/snapback]

Bush has no carrots. He wants death. No doubt with the help of fine upstanding men of Christ like the Repugnants in the party he'll get as much blood and death as he wants. More than anyone wants.
I think the next nuke strike won't be from terrorists, it'll be a twisted, corrupted evangelical like shrub who'll be responsible.

blink.gif

I have a hard time believing you really believe what you write.
If you do, you are one SAD sick SACK.
Were you beaten with a stick as a child?
Is your fear and loathing of all authority based on some S/M manifistation?
Please, Get a grip on reality; look around, and see who is your own best enemy.

I really really really hope and pray no nuke 'strikes' are ever again launched; but when I see an arm with a hand holding a pistol being raised in my direction, given those observations, without much hesitation, I WILL shoot first at that gun and maybe whoever is behind it, and I really don't give a flip if the other's pistol is loaded with blanks, or not. Should the raised arm drop then there's no reason for any gentle squeeze. Any questions? smile.gif
All pretty damned childish IMO. And pretty damned real, I'm sorry to say. See Burr v. Hamilton if you're into irony.
arebuntz
QUOTE(SherryB @ Aug 23 2006, 05:38 PM) [snapback]233351[/snapback]

The two faces of Rumsfeld
2000: director of a company which wins $200m contract to sell nuclear reactors to North Korea

I wasn't talkin' bout power generation plant nukes....
SpaceCowboy
QUOTE(arebuntz @ Aug 23 2006, 06:13 PM) [snapback]233364[/snapback]

I wasn't talkin' bout power generation plant nukes....

Those reactors were to be provided under Clinton's deal with NK. They were of a type that is not useful for producing nuclear weapons, a fact the the RW invariably overlooks when criticising the Clinton deal.
arebuntz
QUOTE(SpaceCowboy @ Aug 23 2006, 07:18 PM) [snapback]233367[/snapback]

Those reactors were to be provided under Clinton's deal with NK. They were of a type that is not useful for producing nuclear weapons, a fact the the RW invariably overlooks when criticising the Clinton deal.

I wasn't talkin' bout deliverin' enrichment nukes either...

Think we need a UN resolution authorizing the Ruskies to sell all the Ruskie nuke plants that Iran and NK can handle. They have been known to be a little unstable after all... the nuke plants that is...
Arturo_Vandelay
QUOTE(arebuntz @ Aug 23 2006, 04:22 PM) [snapback]233369[/snapback]

I wasn't talkin' bout deliverin' enrichment nukes either...

Think we need a UN resolution authorizing the Ruskies to sell all the Ruskie nuke plants that Iran and NK can handle. They have been known to be a little unstable after all... the nuke plants that is...


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arebuntz
... of course it's likely the Ruskies would just back out of the deal when the time came...
CharlieRay
QUOTE
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Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, right, during a meeting with German Ambassador to Iran, Paul ...

U.S. Says Iran Proposal Falls Short
By BARRY SCHWEID, AP Diplomatic Writer
58 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - The Bush administration said Wednesday a proposal by Iran for nuclear negotiations falls short of U.N. demands that it cease uranium enrichment, and the U.S. began plotting unspecified "next moves" with other governments.

Those could include U.N. sanctions against Iran unless it reverses course and agrees to a verifiable halt to enrichment activities that can be central to making nuclear weapons.

The State Department, in a terse statement, acknowledged that Iran considered its proposal to be a serious one. "We will review it," the statement said in what appeared to be a conciliatory gesture to a government it regularly denounces as a sponsor of terror.

But the statement went on to say that Iran's response to a joint offer of U.S, and European trade and other benefits if the enrichment program was halted "falls short of the conditions set by the Security Council" _ full and verifiable suspension of all uranium-enrichment activity.

"We are consulting closely, including with other members of the Security Council, on next steps," it said. The United Nations has set a deadline of next Thursday for a formal reply by Tehran.

President Bush met with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at the White House and then discussed Iran's proposal in a telephone call with U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

The call was initiated by Annan, White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said.

The administration has cautioned Iran that it will seek sanctions in the Security Council if Tehran does not step enriching uranium.

Administration officials have refrained from outlining what punishment they might have in mind. It could include economic or political penalties, perhaps international curbs on trade.

Rice, meanwhile, telephoned Javier Solana, the senior European Union diplomat who oversees exchanges with Iran. No account of their conversation, nor of her meeting with the president, was provided.

By not rejecting Iran's proposal outright, the administration indicated there may be a basis for dealing with long-held concerns that Tehran is developing nuclear weapons, an allegation the Iranians deny.

"The diplomats are continuing to look at it," Perino said. "We're working with our allies."

France took a firm and quick stand. Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said Iran must suspend uranium enrichment if it wants to return to negotiations.

Russia's foreign ministry, evidently ambivalent, said it would continue to seek a negotiated solution. And China appealed for dialogue, urging "constructive measures" by Iran and patience from the United States and its allies.

Iran met its self-imposed deadline Tuesday for responding to the U.S.-European offer, which includes the possibility of U.S. help for civilian nuclear programs _ but only if Iran stops uranium enrichment.

On Capitol Hill, meanwhile, the House Intelligence Committee issued a report that concluded Iran was a strategic threat and a country focused on developing nuclear weapons capability. It also linked Iran to Hezbollah, Hamas and other terrorist groups.

"Iran's support of radical Islamists with weapons and money demonstrates in real terms the danger it poses to America and our allies," said the committee's chairman, Rep. Peter Hoekstra, R-Mich. He said Iran "will not be satisfied until it poses a threat to the entire world."

The report also said there are gaps in the ability of U.S. intelligence agencies to keep up with developments in Iran's nuclear program and suggested hiring more intelligence agents who speak Farsi.
judy
QUOTE(Arturo_Vandelay @ Aug 23 2006, 01:58 PM) [snapback]233299[/snapback]

Maybe if we give them nukes they'll give up nuclear development. I think that was the Clinton plan for North Korea.

And don't forget the catalyst ..... James Earl Carter.
SpaceCowboy
QUOTE(judy @ Aug 23 2006, 06:54 PM) [snapback]233381[/snapback]

And don't forget the catalyst ..... James Earl Carter.

When Bush took office, the consensus among US intelligence agencies was that N. Korea did not possess nuclear weapons. Since taking office, Bush repudiated Clinton's deal and NK began reprocessing fuel rods from its own reactor. Now many intelligence analysts think NK may have a few nukes.

How has the Bush policy worked out?
Arturo_Vandelay
QUOTE
When Bush took office, the consensus among US intelligence agencies was that N. Korea did not possess nuclear weapons. Since taking office, Bush repudiated Clinton's deal and NK began reprocessing fuel rods from its own reactor. Now many intelligence analysts think NK may have a few nukes.

How has the Bush policy worked out?




Man, storm caught me right in mid-post. Had to shut down in seconds.

Bush's policy is just a continuation of the old policies. We offer the carrot, they lie and cheat, we threaten the stick, people complain, we back down, things cool off, then we offer another carrot.

If Bush had a new policy it would probably include a couple carrier groups.

SpaceCowboy
QUOTE(Arturo_Vandelay @ Aug 23 2006, 08:41 PM) [snapback]233400[/snapback]

Man, storm caught me right in mid-post. Had to shut down in seconds.

Bush's policy is just a continuation of the old policies. We offer the carrot, they lie and cheat, we threaten the stick, people complain, we back down, things cool off, then we offer another carrot.

If Bush had a new policy it would probably include a couple carrier groups.


QUOTE
Bush's Gift to Jong Il
by Gordon Prather

According to ABC News, US intelligence officials have told the White House there is "a real possibility" that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea [DPRK] is preparing to conduct an underground test of a nuclear weapon.

In particular, the Koreans have been observed unloading "large reels of cable" outside an underground facility in Northeast DPRK, suspected to be a nuke UGT site. The nuke to be tested would be placed at the end of a tunnel, and arming, fusing, firing and diagnostic cables would be run from the nuke to control and diagnostic bunkers outside the tunnel.

Then the tunnel would be "plugged," to contain the nuke explosion.

If the Koreans do conduct a nuke test – or even if they fake it with a few tons of high explosive – we’ll never know whether the test was a success or not, unless the test is successful, the confinement in the tunnel is insufficient and the nuke explosion vents, allowing radioactive debris to escape into the atmosphere.

Quite a bit can be determined about the design of the nuke and its performance from a radio-chemical analysis of such debris.

But absent such debris, we’ll have to rely on seismic yield, which is not very accurate even when the depth of burial is known, the surrounding geologic media is well characterized and the exact time of detonation is known. We won’t know any of these things.

So, as was the case back in 1998, when the Pakistanis said they successfully tested a half-dozen nukes of different designs at an until-then unknown UGT test facility, if the Koreans say they successfully tested a nuke we’ll just have to take their word for it.

However, we do know that Jong Il has – courtesy George Bush – enough weapons-grade Plutonium to make at least half a dozen first-generation implosion nukes.

Why "courtesy George Bush"?

Each no-nuke signatory to the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons agrees to conclude with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) a Safeguards agreement. All "source" and "special fissionable materials" as well as any activities involving them are to be made subject to the IAEA Safeguards agreement. The IAEA is thereafter responsible for preventing their "diversion."

When Bush-Cheney-Bolton came to power, Iran was required to subject to IAEA Safeguards all uranium, plutonium and thorium – in whatever form and however obtained – as well as all activities wherein safeguarded materials are transformed, produced or processed.

But in 1992, the IAEA had essentially accused DPRK of having a clandestine nuke program.

The DPRK denied that it did – and there is no evidence even now that it did, then – but under the Agreed Framework of 1994, the Koreans "froze" all their nuclear programs, subjecting them to IAEA verification. In return, an international consortium – led by South Korea – was to construct in the DPRK two free conventional nuclear power plants. In the meantime, President Clinton promised them annual supplementary shipments of fuel oil.

Clinton also vowed he wouldn't attack the DPRK – or any other NPT-signatory – with nukes so long as they remained a NPT-signatory.

So, when Bush-Cheney-Bolton came to power, the Koreans were certified to have not diverted any "special fissionable materials" to a military purpose.

So, Bush couldn’t nuke them.

Well, that would never do.

So, in his 2002 State of the Union Address, Bush said:

"Our second goal is to prevent regimes that sponsor terror from threatening America or our friends and allies with weapons of mass destruction.

"Some of these regimes have been pretty quiet since September the 11th. But we know their true nature.

"North Korea is a regime arming with missiles and weapons of mass destruction, while starving its citizens.

"States like these, and their terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world."

Then, in October 2002, Anonymous [I] told media sycophants that Anonymous [II] "admitted" to him at a cocktail party that DPRK had a clandestine uranium-nuke program.

Never mind that the DPRK vehemently denies to this day having any such program. Or that our intelligence community doesn’t have the foggiest notion where this clandestine uranium-nuke program might be.

Bush promptly ceased fuel oil shipments, thereby unilaterally abrogating the Agreed Framework.

That caused the DPRK to withdraw from the NPT and resume their nuclear programs – only this time they announced they intended to divert their weapons-grade plutonium to a military purpose.

Like producing at least a half-dozen nukes.

So why not test one?

Or at least fake it?


(all) http://www.antiwar.com/prather/?articleid=9562
Arturo_Vandelay
QUOTE
Never mind that the DPRK vehemently denies to this day having any such program.


I'd trust almost any stranger at your random cocktail party more than lil Kim.


I do enjoy the Anti-War.com view though. I'm sure they'd happily buy a used Volga sedan from Kim anytime.
SpaceCowboy
QUOTE(Arturo_Vandelay @ Aug 23 2006, 08:55 PM) [snapback]233403[/snapback]

I'd trust almost any stranger at your random cocktail party more than lil Kim.
I do enjoy the Anti-War.com view though. I'm sure they'd happily buy a used Volga sedan from Kim anytime.

So would I. Still, I expect Kim to act in a rational way, from his point of view.
Arturo_Vandelay
QUOTE(SpaceCowboy @ Aug 23 2006, 06:58 PM) [snapback]233404[/snapback]

So would I. Still, I expect Kim to act in a rational way, from his point of view.



Sure, he rattles the sabre, and gets a little something for his trouble now and then. I hope he maintains his rationality in his old age. It worries me more who he might sell to than what he might do himself.
SpaceCowboy
QUOTE(Arturo_Vandelay @ Aug 23 2006, 08:55 PM) [snapback]233403[/snapback]

I do enjoy the Anti-War.com view though. I'm sure they'd happily buy a used Volga sedan from Kim anytime.

Gordon Prather has a good deal more credibility as a nuclear physicist than David Horrowtiz and his ilk.

The point is that the Bush approach has left us with less international scrutiny on site in NK than before. However much one likes to criticise the Clinton approach, Bush results have certainly been no better.
Arturo_Vandelay
QUOTE(SpaceCowboy @ Aug 23 2006, 07:03 PM) [snapback]233407[/snapback]



The point is that the Bush approach has left us with less international scrutiny on site in NK than before. However much one likes to criticise the Clinton approach, Bush results have certainly been no better.


Oh, I understand the leftist point well enough. Every problem is only a signature away from solution. In the case of some governments that's probably true, the hitch being that the most dangerous governments are where that approach doesn't work.

Once something has a momentum of it's own no US action is likely to affect it enough for a perfectly positive result. We can't MAKE NK comply regardless of we do.


http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/nuke/index.html

Nuclear Weapons Program

Current Status

In a roundtable discussion with the United States and China in Beijing on April 24, 2003, North Korean officials admitted for the first time that they possessed nuclear weapons. Furthermore, North Korean officials claim to have reprocessed spent fuel rods and have threatened to begin exporting nuclear materials unless the United States agrees to one-on-one talks with North Korea.


Tensions between the United States and North Korea have been running especially high since, in early October of 2002, Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly informed North Korean officials that the United States was aware that North Korea had a program underway to enrich uranium for use in nuclear weapons. Initially North Korea denied this, but later confirmed the veracity of the US claim. In confirming that they had an active nuclear weapons program, they also declared the Agreed Framework nullified.

The Agreed Framework signed by the United States and North Korea on October 21, 1994 in Geneva agreed that:

* North Korea would freeze its existing nuclear program and agree to enhanced International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards
* Both sides would cooperate to replace the D.P.R.K.'s graphite-moderated reactors for related facilities with light-water (LWR) power plants.
* Both countries would move toward full normalization of political and economic relations.
* Both sides will work together for peace and security on a nuclear-free Korean peninsula.
* And that both sides would work to strengthen the international nuclear non-proliferation regime.

Prior to the establishment of the Agreed Framework, intelligence sources believed that North Korea could have extracted plutonium from their reactors for use in nuclear weapons; perhaps enough for one or two nuclear weapons.

Nevertheless, it has remained unclear whether North Korea had actually produced nuclear weapons due to difficulties in developing detonation devices.
History

North Korea maintains uranium mines with an estimated four million tons of exploitable high-quality uranium ore. Information on the state and quality of their mines is lacking, but it is estimated that the ore contains approximately 0.8% extractable uranium. In the mid-1960s, it established a large-scale atomic energy research complex in Yongbyon and trained specialists from students who had studied in the Soviet Union. Under the cooperation agreement concluded between the USSR and the DPRK, a nuclear research center was constructed near the small town of Yongbyon. In 1965 a Soviet IRT-2M research reactor was assembled for this center. From 1965 through 1973 fuel (fuel elements) enriched to 10 percent was supplied to the DPRK for this reactor.

In the 1970s it focused study on the nuclear fuel cycle including refining, conversion and fabrication. In 1974 Korean specialists independently modernized Soviet IRT-2M research reactor in the same way that other reactors operating in the USSR and other countries had been modernized, bringing its capacity up to 8 megawatts and switching to fuel enriched to 80 percent. Subsequently, the degree of fuel enrichment was reduced. In the same period the DPRK began to build a 5 MWe research reactor, what is called the "second reactor." In 1977 the DPRK concluded an agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA], allowing the latter to inspect a research reactor which was built with the assistance of the USSR.

The North Korean nuclear weapons program dates back to the 1980s. In the 1980s, focusing on practical uses of nuclear energy and the completion of a nuclear weapon development system, North Korea began to operate facilities for uranium fabrication and conversion. It began construction of a 200 MWe nuclear reactor and nuclear reprocessing facilities in Taechon and Yongbyon, respectively, and conducted high-explosive detonation tests. In 1985 US officials announced for the first time that they had intelligence data proving that a secret nuclear reactor was being built 90 km north of Pyongyang near the small town of Yongbyon. The installation at Yongbyon had been known for eight years from official IAEA reports. In 1985, under international pressure, Pyongyang acceded to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). However, the DPRK refused to sign a safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), an obligation it had as a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

In July 1990 The Washington Post reported that new satellite photographs showed the presence in Yongbyon of a structure which could possibly be used to separate plutonium from nuclear fuel.
SpaceCowboy
QUOTE(Arturo_Vandelay @ Aug 23 2006, 09:24 PM) [snapback]233411[/snapback]

Oh, I understand the leftist point well enough. Every problem is only a signature away from solution. In the case of some governments that's probably true, the hitch being that the most dangerous governments are where that approach doesn't work.

Once something has a momentum of it's own no US action is likely to affect it enough for a perfectly positive result. We can't MAKE NK comply regardless of we do.

QUOTE
2002 State of the Union-
Bush promptly ceased fuel oil shipments, thereby unilaterally abrogating the Agreed Framework.



http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/nuke/index.html

Nuclear Weapons Program

Current Status

In a roundtable discussion with the United States and China in Beijing on April 24, 2003, North Korean officials admitted for the first time that they possessed nuclear weapons. Furthermore, North Korean officials claim to have reprocessed spent fuel rods and have threatened to begin exporting nuclear materials unless the United States agrees to one-on-one talks with North Korea.



Good find. I'lll be the first to admit that the DPRK couldn't have produced nukes in the space of a year were their program not already well advanced.
SpaceCowboy
QUOTE
The Iranian War Machine

I did some Google searches for "Iran" and "military build-up" and found lots of documents ... almost all from the mid-1990s.

If Iran is really out to conquer the region, it would need tanks, lots and lots of tanks, plus air cover, since tank armadas are dead ducks in the open desert. So, is Iran building up its tank fleet and air force preparatory to its upcoming blitzkriegs? Here's what the Center for Strategic and International Studies says about Iran:

"Most of Iran's military equipment is aging or second rate and much of it is worn. Iran lost some 50-60% of its land order of battle in the climatic battles of the Iran-Iraq War, and it has never had large-scale access to the modern weapons and military technology necessary to replace them. It also has lacked the ability to find a stable source of parts and supplies for most of its Western-supplied equipment, and has not have access to upgrades and modernization programs since the fall of the Shah in 1979."

Here is Iran's tank fleet, according to a site called MILNET:

Tank Type Count Manufacturer
M-47/48 150 U.S. (*)
M-60A1 150-160 U.S. (*)
Chieftain Mark 3/5s 100 U.K. (*)
T-54/55 250 Russia/Soviet
T-59 150-250 (35-?) Russia/Soviet
T-72/S 480 Russia/Soviet
T-69II 150-250 ? Russia/Soviet
Zulfiqar 100 Iranian made from T-72 and M48 pieces
Total Estimate 1600
* delivered prior to the fall of the Shah of Iran in 1979

A reader comments:

I believe the name of the Iranian-made main battle tank, the Zuliqfar, literally means "burning torment" and is perhaps best rendered colloquially as "flaming coffin" or "death trap."

And here are other regional powers:

Country Main
Battle Tanks Comments
Israel 4300 Modernized, well maintained
Egypt 4300 Fairly Modernized, maintained
Syria 4600 Fair maintained
but much older technology
Iran 1565
(1000) * Mostly older technology, maybe one to three full divisions of modern equipped
Jordan 1217 Fair maintenance, old technology
Saudi Arabia 1055 Well Maintained, modernized regularly
Lebanon 315
(100)* Well aged, poorly maintained,
single battle ready only

So, it looks like Iran would match up pretty well with mighty Jordan.

And then there's the Iranian Air Force, which resembles the raw materials for a nostalgic air show more than a war-winning military arm:

Aircraft Made in Count Mission Comments
F-14
U.S. 50 Air Defense Poorly maintained, Little/no AAM, gun only
MiG-29 Russia 6 Air Defense Highly capable, heavy maintenance costs, fuel hungry
F-7M China 35 Air Defense Fairly modern and capable
F-4D/E U.S. 260 Attack/Defense Very poorly maintained, parts not available to Iran
some in ME market
F-5E/FII U.S. 260 Attack/Defense Very poorly maintained,
parts not available from U.S., some in ME market
Su-24 Soviet 30 Attack Some parts purchases with Russia have taken place, these may be the best maintained of all Iranian aircraft
Su-25K Soviet 7 Attack Seized during Gulf War (Iraq inexplictedly flew them out)
May be operational but doubtful
Mir F-1 France 24 Attack/Defense Seized during Gulf War (Iraq inexplictedly flew them out)
May be operational but doubtful

The theoretical bulk of the Iranian air force (520 planes) is made up of F4s, which first flew in 1958, and F5s, which first flew in 1959. So they've got 6 good MiG-29s and 35 pretty good Chinese planes.

In contrast, Israel has "555 combat aircraft (90 probably stored)."

What they have been investing in are missiles and, presumably, nuclear weapons development, which makes a lot of sense if their military strategy is to deter attack. Or, as many theorize, they might be trying to provoke the world so much they get nuked so they can get their hands on those 72 virgins faster. I wouldn't know.


(check this site for more readable charts)
http://isteve.blogspot.com/
Arturo_Vandelay
QUOTE(SpaceCowboy @ Aug 23 2006, 07:37 PM) [snapback]233420[/snapback]



http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/nuke/index.html

Nuclear Weapons Program

Current Status

In a roundtable discussion with the United States and China in Beijing on April 24, 2003, North Korean officials admitted for the first time that they possessed nuclear weapons. Furthermore, North Korean officials claim to have reprocessed spent fuel rods and have threatened to begin exporting nuclear materials unless the United States agrees to one-on-one talks with North Korea.



Good find. I'lll be the first to admit that the DPRK couldn't have produced nukes in the space of a year were their program not already well advanced.


And it takes the material, detonation and delivery system to make it really dangerous. As threats to the US go NK isn't likely to be a major one for a long time.
arebuntz
News story I saw a month or so ago had the Iranian military practicing to go immediately to insurgent mode if US invades. They have the land mass and terrain to make that work pretty well if occupation is our goal. Not so good if we go all Sherman March to the Sea on them.

A couple of small yeild large sized fission devices leaking radiation like crazy not very formidable. Might be able to sneak one in via shipping container so try not to live close to a major port. Still, radiation would be detectable and chances of it actually going off probably not 100%. When it is discovered intact or it does go off then NK having a few small fission devices will be of no consequence...

Pretty much same for Iran as NK.
SpaceCowboy
QUOTE(Arturo_Vandelay @ Aug 23 2006, 09:49 PM) [snapback]233428[/snapback]

And it takes the material, detonation and delivery system to make it really dangerous. As threats to the US go NK isn't likely to be a major one for a long time.

Not likely at all. Their main objective seems to be regime survival and a little blackmail.
Arturo_Vandelay
QUOTE(arebuntz @ Aug 23 2006, 07:56 PM) [snapback]233430[/snapback]


A couple of small yeild large sized fission devices leaking radiation like crazy not very formidable. Might be able to sneak one in via shipping container so try not to live close to a major port. Still, radiation would be detectable and chances of it actually going off probably not 100%. When it is discovered intact or it does go off then NK having a few small fission devices will be of no consequence...

Pretty much same for Iran as NK.


We can't assure no American ever dies from a nuclear device, but we can make sure whoever tries it pays a hundredfold what we do.
arebuntz
As discussed before, mood of the Country now pretty much means we will have to absorb the first blow...
davisął
QUOTE(roserose @ Aug 23 2006, 05:58 PM) [snapback]233358[/snapback]

blink.gif

I have a hard time believing you really believe what you write.
If you do, you are one SAD sick SACK.
Were you beaten with a stick as a child?
Is your fear and loathing of all authority based on some S/M manifistation?
Please, Get a grip on reality; look around, and see who is your own best enemy.

I really really really hope and pray no nuke 'strikes' are ever again launched; but when I see an arm with a hand holding a pistol being raised in my direction, given those observations, without much hesitation, I WILL shoot first at that gun and maybe whoever is behind it, and I really don't give a flip if the other's pistol is loaded with blanks, or not. Should the raised arm drop then there's no reason for any gentle squeeze. Any questions? smile.gif
All pretty damned childish IMO. And pretty damned real, I'm sorry to say. See Burr v. Hamilton if you're into irony.



And there's this dude, uhhh.. a real, real, real bad man.... and uhhhh he's like ... gonna like uhhhh bomb in a uh...a nucular bomb...(be afraid) in a suitcase... like Rush said... (fear floods the mind) uhhhh.. from the Iranians...or the Lebonese and uhhhh.... he's gonna...like uhhh... set it off in ...uhhh ...your town.. maybe?? (democrats are evil) and then, hey dude, what good is the law then? (you will obey) What good is the constitution then? (you must listen to Republicans) yo dude... you like...uuhhhh...



need to grow a spine.




See David Koresh or Jim Jones if you're into irony.
Arturo_Vandelay
QUOTE(arebuntz @ Aug 23 2006, 08:25 PM) [snapback]233441[/snapback]
As discussed before, mood of the Country now pretty much means we will have to absorb the first blow...


We wouldn't want a pre-emptive war now, would we?
davisął
QUOTE(arebuntz @ Aug 23 2006, 10:25 PM) [snapback]233441[/snapback]

As discussed before, mood of the Country now pretty much means we will have to absorb the first blow...


Rosenose thought I was mentally disturbed for suggesting we would be responsible for the next nuke. This type of comments made here and even by US officials is hardly unique and shows I'm not that disturbed after all. The scary part is there are Republicans with great influence who both think Armageddon is imminent and we should take out Iran and even Syria now. They are crazy. They've already proven irrational and delusional to the point of megalomania. Nothing on the ground means a thing. Why not a nuke?

roserose
QUOTE(davisął @ Aug 23 2006, 10:31 PM) [snapback]233443[/snapback]

yo dude... you like...uuhhhh...
need to grow a spine.
See David Koresh or Jim Jones if you're into irony.


Still shopping religions to your liking , are you? Seems you've approached every sect from Agnosticism to Zoroastrianism and have not found one that'll admit you, yet. I hear they're looking for leadership types in both those camps.
As for spine; I'm happy with mine. You should never have bought into that tadpole experiment. But saying so is just rubbing it in; so I won't. Tsk. wink.gif
davisął
I'm not sure where you live but, if you're not into Scientology, I'm sure if you look in the yellow pages you'll find numerous and assorted psychiatrists and psychoanalysts competent and otherwise. I suggest you avail yourself of their services.

IPB Image


Or you could just stay in your current guise and make no sense whatsoever.
SherryB
From USA Today-


Report says U.S. intelligence lacking on Iran

Posted 8/23/2006 7:23 PM ET



By Katherine Hutt Scott, Gannett News Service


WASHINGTON — Iran bears significant responsibility for the recent violence in Israel and Lebanon and poses a serious security threat to the United States, according to a staff report released Wednesday by the House Subcommittee on Intelligence Policy.


The U.S. intelligence community must collect more and better intelligence on Iran, especially on its nuclear, biological and chemical weapons programs, the 29-page bipartisan report says.


Iran expert Andrew Grotto with the Center for American Progress in Washington called the report a "sober assessment" and agreed that the United States lacks critical information about Iran.


ON THE WEB: Read the report

But Grotto said the report doesn't address another major issue — the widespread lack of confidence in the Bush administration's handling of intelligence.

"People feel stung by Iraq, Grotto said. "They want to know that when the administration says there is a nuclear threat, that what they're being told is accurate."



The report lists several threats posed by Tehran. It says:

• Iran provides funding, training, weapons and other support to Hezbollah and other terrorist groups. The report says Iran provided Hezbollah with the thousands of rockets the group fired against Israel during the last two months.

• Some members of Iran's national security organization are actively supporting the insurgency in Iraq.

Iran is seeking nuclear weapons and has conducted a clandestine program of enriching uranium for nearly two decades, in violation of treaty agreements. The report says Iran won't be able to make a nuclear weapon until at least the start of the next decade.

• Iran has the Middle East's largest inventory of ballistic missiles, capable of striking U.S. allies from Italy to India or U.S. military bases in Iraq, Germany and Afghanistan.

"The theocratic, authoritarian regime in Tehran uses terrorist proxies to scare the international community into capitulating to their demands," said Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., who chairs the subcommittee that released the report.

The report was issued one day after Iran refused to suspend its uranium enrichment by the end of the month, a deadline set by the United Nations Security Council, according to published reports.

The United States and its allies have accused Iran of wanting to develop nuclear weapons. Iran has said it is pursuing peaceful nuclear energy.



If we don't have intelligence on Iran, how do we know any of these things? Guessing??? Like we did with Iraq???? What if they are just bluffing, like Saddam????? Are we going to go to war with Iran without knowing the answers????


http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2006-08...htm?POE=NEWISVA

davisął
QUOTE
If we don't have intelligence on Iran, how do we know any of these things? Guessing??? Like we did with Iraq???? What if they are just bluffing, like Saddam????? Are we going to go to war with Iran without knowing the answers????


The Bush administration, in conjunction with Rupert enterprises, held tryouts and the new Fox reality show will be ... <drum roll>

Choose the Chalabi!

Yes, that's right! Thursday nights just got a whole lot bloodier!

There is a house on a hill, hidden inside are an assortment of weapons and cruel devices and five golden tickets. After sealing the doors each contestant will be given one clue to the whereabouts of the golden tickets so they can work together ...... or not.

IPB Image

The man who emerges victorious with said golden tickets will recieve a real genuine Presidential Medal of Freedom presented by GW himself and a contract good for 100s of billions of dollars and the opportunity to simultaneously be responsible for the death of tens of thousands and be set up financially for life.


Granted, it's not a new concept. You stick with what works.
roserose
QUOTE(davisął @ Aug 23 2006, 11:31 PM) [snapback]233455[/snapback]

I'm not sure where you live but, if you're not into Scientology, I'm sure if you look in the yellow pages you'll find numerous and assorted psychiatrists and psychoanalysts competent and otherwise. I suggest you avail yourself of their services.

IPB Image
Or you could just stay in your current guise and make no sense whatsoever.


pssst. d. Got the IPB Image text but thanks to Space did this copy/paste lookup and caught it. BTW, is that a prop in your belt or RU just plain ol' happy slappin''? biggrin.gif
davisął
It's pretty bad when you can't recognize your own pic. Lay off the sauce, goose.
Carol
QUOTE(Arturo_Vandelay @ Aug 23 2006, 10:34 PM) [snapback]233444[/snapback]


We wouldn't want a pre-emptive war now, would we?


I'm confident our military has a good bead on North Korea if they wanted to do something totally insane; but, Iran could be the stickler...however, so far, all I see is Iran working in the background, although not silently. Iran makes a lot of noise, but I'm not at all sure they want to be in forefront of a blast. I would assume the Mullahs are very comfortable safely sitting on their tufts directing traffic. Of course, there's always the possibilty of a loose cannon contaminating their spoils. I think we're as ready as we can be for that scenario.

We are the most powerful nation in the world, and we do have the ability to completely destroy Iran, so will it ever come them asking themselves "Do I feel lucky?" and us asking them, "Well, do ya, punk?" Is that time nearing? I do think Iran had better start getting serious about negotiating and quit with the threats before they get in over their head. I really don't think they want to be on the losing end of that stick, which is where they would end up if they don't take advantage of the goodies being offered them. Of course, this is all just my humble opinion. cool.gif
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