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Bush administration has Venezuela in its crosshairs
By George Friedman
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http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | A few weeks ago, I noted in this space that the United States is beginning to shift its focus — away from al-Qaida and away even from the ongoing violence in Iraq, back to pre-9/11 dynamics. This week, we have seen further evidence of this shift with a new response by Washington to an old bete-noir, Hugo Chavez.
Under normal circumstances, it would be easy to dismiss the Venezuelan president's consistent anti-U.S. rhetoric, were it any less voluble or entertaining. For the past three years, since surviving a brief coup, Chavez has been claiming, first, that the United States was set on toppling his regime and, more recently, that U.S. leaders now seek his assassination. Meanwhile, he has been pursuing some fairly provocative leftist policies — especially for the leader of a country the United States relies on as a significant source of oil supplies.
Whatever warmth there may have been in these chilly relations now appears to be dissipating altogether. In recent days, Chavez has scuttled a 35-year-old military exchange program with the United States, claiming that U.S. soldiers were "waging a little campaign" that included bad-mouthing his presidency and otherwise slighting their host country. Meanwhile, he also has charged that several Americans were caught taking pictures of such things as oil refineries and military facilities, saying this shows that Washington is stepping up its intelligence operations against his government.
Washington, which has categorically denied the claims that any Americans were arrested, would be much more likely to task satellites than human spies with such a mission — if there was much value in photographing oil refineries and military bases to begin with, which there isn't. All of which would again make Chavez's statements easy to dismiss — except for an April 26 story in The New York Times.
According to the story, which clearly was intentionally leaked to The Times by the Bush administration, the United States has concluded that there is no way to improve relations with Chavez and that, in short, he must go. Washington is considering a program of destabilizing Venezuela, which could include financing institutions and political groups that oppose Chavez.
Since this has been a basic model for dealing with regimes in Washington's crosshairs for several years, the report can be taken seriously. Moreover, it was timed to coincide with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's departure for a tour through Latin American states, where her agenda included discussions on Venezuela with other regional leaders.
By George Friedman
Printer Friendly Version
Email this article
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | A few weeks ago, I noted in this space that the United States is beginning to shift its focus — away from al-Qaida and away even from the ongoing violence in Iraq, back to pre-9/11 dynamics. This week, we have seen further evidence of this shift with a new response by Washington to an old bete-noir, Hugo Chavez.
Under normal circumstances, it would be easy to dismiss the Venezuelan president's consistent anti-U.S. rhetoric, were it any less voluble or entertaining. For the past three years, since surviving a brief coup, Chavez has been claiming, first, that the United States was set on toppling his regime and, more recently, that U.S. leaders now seek his assassination. Meanwhile, he has been pursuing some fairly provocative leftist policies — especially for the leader of a country the United States relies on as a significant source of oil supplies.
Whatever warmth there may have been in these chilly relations now appears to be dissipating altogether. In recent days, Chavez has scuttled a 35-year-old military exchange program with the United States, claiming that U.S. soldiers were "waging a little campaign" that included bad-mouthing his presidency and otherwise slighting their host country. Meanwhile, he also has charged that several Americans were caught taking pictures of such things as oil refineries and military facilities, saying this shows that Washington is stepping up its intelligence operations against his government.
Washington, which has categorically denied the claims that any Americans were arrested, would be much more likely to task satellites than human spies with such a mission — if there was much value in photographing oil refineries and military bases to begin with, which there isn't. All of which would again make Chavez's statements easy to dismiss — except for an April 26 story in The New York Times.
According to the story, which clearly was intentionally leaked to The Times by the Bush administration, the United States has concluded that there is no way to improve relations with Chavez and that, in short, he must go. Washington is considering a program of destabilizing Venezuela, which could include financing institutions and political groups that oppose Chavez.
Since this has been a basic model for dealing with regimes in Washington's crosshairs for several years, the report can be taken seriously. Moreover, it was timed to coincide with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's departure for a tour through Latin American states, where her agenda included discussions on Venezuela with other regional leaders.
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