What the heck. Don't think much anyone here likes football, but this post was interesting from another board.

http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/forums/...ic.php?t=138677

The Iced Foot Effect
Ivars Peterson

It was a dramatic finale. Only 9 seconds remained in the National Football League's 2004 Super Bowl, which pitted the New England Patriots against the Carolina Panthers. The score was tied. The Patriots kicker Adam Vinatieri was set to kick a game-winning, 40-yard field goal.

At that crucial moment, the Panthers called a timeout. The team hoped that this extra time would "ice" Vinatieri, getting him to think more about the situation he was in—and making him more likely to miss. The kicker had to wait 2 minutes before making his attempt. He made the kick, and the Patriots won the Super Bowl.

Football teams continue to call timeouts at such moments, always hoping to increase the chances that the opposing kicker will miss after the delay. Basketball teams apply a similar strategy when they call a timeout just before an opposing player attempts a free throw.

"Does making the kicker think about his field goal attempt for an extra 2 minutes alter his probability of success?" statisticians Scott Berry and Craig Wood ask in the current issue of Chance. In other words, does "icing" work?

To find out, Berry and Wood analyzed data about field goal attempts during the 2002 and 2003 NFL seasons (including playoffs). They recorded the kicker, the length of the kick, the score of the game, the time left in the game, and whether a timeout was called by the defense before the kick. They even noted whether the field was grass or artificial turf and the weather conditions (sun, clouds, rain, snow, average wind speed, temperature—unless the games were indoors).

In these two seasons, there were 52 different field goal kickers, combining for a total of 2,003 attempts. Of these kicks, 1,565 (78.1 percent) were successful.

Berry and Wood then looked at what they defined as "pressure" kicks—those that occurred with 3 minutes or less remaining in the game (or overtime) and would create a lead or a tie for the team attempting the kick.

There were 139 such pressure kicks, and 101 (73 percent) were successful. The defense called a timeout 38 times before the pressure kick, and 24 (63 percent) of these kicks succeeded.

To take a closer look at the data and take into account any physical factors that could affect the outcome, the statisticians created a mathematical model representing the probability of a successful kick.

In general terms, a successful kick depends largely on the distance. It's also useful to incorporate a factor that accounts for performance differences among different kickers. Weather may also influence the result.

Using this model, Berry and Wood obtained results using the 2-season data that matched certain expectations. A kick made indoors is more likely to be successful. Clouds also have a small beneficial effect on kicks. Rain or snow, on the other hand, reduces the chances of success. High winds also reduce the probability of success, but not as much as rain or snow.

In pressure situations, the odds of success change very little (a mean decrease of 1.8 percent). However, icing the kicker in such a situation has a pretty strong negative effect.

Using their model, Berry and Wood calculate that, for an average kicker, the estimated probability of a successful 40-yard kick in sunny weather is 0.759. The estimated probability under the same conditions for an average kicker who has been iced is 0.659.
"Reducing the probability of a successful kick from 0.759 to 0.659 is a very important difference," Berry and Wood report.

So, is calling a timeout a good defensive strategy? "The evidence is not overwhelming, but it is compelling," Berry and Wood conclude.

"Icing a field goal kicker on a pressure kick may decrease the probability of success," they add. "This implies that a psychological effect of pressure exists, and is compounded by more time to dwell on the kick."

Statisticians and fans have long argued about whether there is such a thing as a "hot-hand" effect in sports, where a player, such as basketball shooter, has streaks during which he's more successful than expected. Now, there appears to be evidence of a "cold-foot" effect!

I always wondered about that. Even moreso when a timeout might be important with only a few seconds left.

I've often thought it just a means to give the NFL telecasters an excuse for squeezing in 3 more commercials, as it rarely results in a missed FG - when you have a competent placekicker. I note that their data was not normalized for the overall record of the kicker. A Jason Elam or Adam Vinatieri vs a Josh Scobee, as example. Could also make a difference.

10% with a 16th of your season on the line is a pretty big deal, especially if you have money on the game.

This is the first attempt to study the whole thing that I've seen, though coaches probably have people working on it, like every other little thing they do.

In Vegas if you don't do EVERYTHING to win people will want to hunt you down and kill you. 10% is a very big deal here.

The only betting I do is one pool and a fantasy football league. An old roommate used to bet football and lost quite a bit on it.

One more week and camps open. I can hardly wait.

GO RAIDERS!!!!!

GO BRONCOS!!!!!!

Hurry up football season.

Go Boingers!!!!!!

My fantasy team.

Sure that's not "Go Bonkers!"??

Just kidding.

Go Rams!!!!!!

GO CHARGERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I have LT in my fantasy league. Best in the league.

SPEED iM AN OLD RAMS FAN FROM WHEN THEY WERE IN LA.........Loved the old guys Jack youngblood, fred dryer, merlin olsen and head slappin deacon jones!!!!!

Don't forget Roman Gabriel, daddy's hero. I'm a bit late to the fold, but rooting for anyone else would get me kicked out of the family. Lots of Ram fans here from the LA days.

I grew up going to the games at the colloseum, then later at anaheim stadium. Still cant stand geogia frontiere

Nobody can.

Now I can't wait for Raiders-Chargers.

I have LT too. In a keeper league. Best move I ever made. (After getting Priest Holmes)

You better not be a raiderfan arturo....in order to be a raider fan you must be a convicted felon you know.......

Looks like the family photo album.

And you don't have to actually be convicted.

You don't get to go with him?

Good story on MLK Day....

Rose Bowl: The Vince and Chuck story

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Posted: January 12, 2006
1:00 a.m. Eastern


© 2006 Laurence A. Elder


"The blacker you are, the worse it is for you. If you're mixed, you've got a shot. If you cater to what white America wants you to do and how they want you to look, you can survive. But if you want to be yourself, and try to do things that fit you, and your skin, nobody cares about that. At the end of the day, white America dominates and rules. And it's racist."

Thus said successful (and dark-skinned) victicrat-singer Mary J. Blige.

Guess Ms. Blige didn't catch the Rose Bowl.

The thrilling game, won by Texas, 41-38, says a lot about the greatness of America.

During the game, cameras caught beaming Texas fans, many white – cheering their squad on. Then the cameras cut away to the USC sideline, where former minority stars like Marcus Allen and Tony Munoz cheered for their team.


Vince Young, Texas' black quarterback, proved that with hard work, perseverance and loving support, one can overcome a troubled background. During the game, the camera cut away to shots of USC quarterback Matt Leinart's dad. No such shots for the Texas quarterback, who led a talented group of black and white players. Young's father abandoned the family when Vince turned 4, and his dad now serves a 16-year prison term for armed robbery. Vince's mother and grandmother and two older sisters raised him. Still, he got into trouble and ran for a time with a street gang called the Bloods. After Vince got arrested for brawling with another gang, his mother came to pick him up. After the tongue-lashing he received about not wasting his future, Young – chastened and embarrassed – determined to turn his life around and get serious about his future. He recently announced his intention to enter the NFL draft, where he will likely receive a multi-year, multimillion-dollar contract.

Had USC won the Rose Bowl, that would have given the Southern California team 35 victories in a row. The pursuit would match the brilliant record of Chuck Ealey. Who is Chuck Ealey?

Ealey, a black man raised in the Midwest, starred as a high-school quarterback for his team at Portsmouth, Ohio, Notre Dame High School. Despite winning all 18 games he started as quarterback in high school, major college teams only expressed an interest in Ealey if Ealey agreed to switch positions. Ealey refused. He made it clear that when he played in college, he intended to play quarterback.

No major football college showed an interest, so Ealey ended up playing at the University of Toledo in 1968. Not exactly center ring, but at least he played quarterback. He won every game at Toledo as starting quarterback while going 35-and-0, and graduated with a degree in economics.

Did the pros came a-knocking for the spectacularly successful Ealey? No, in those days, the NFL showed little interest in black quarterbacks, believing blacks too dimwitted to handle the heady quarterback position, or that racist white teammates would refuse to subordinate themselves to the leadership of a black quarterback, or that they might lose fan support. So Ealey played for the Canadian Football League, where he starred, was named Rookie of the Year, and received an MVP for his victory in the Grey Cup, Canada's equivalent of the Super Bowl.

Today, Ealey lives as a businessman in Canada. Is he angry? Is he bitter? No, he expresses pride that USC's pursuit of his record brings attention to the achievement of that University of Toledo team. Today, of the six top collegiate football conferences, a little over one-third use first-string black quarterbacks. Did someone pass a law requiring colleges to recruit black quarterbacks? No, coaches want to win, and the excellent performance of black athletes left them no choice.

This story may be apocryphal. But – as Dan Rather might have put it – the tale is too good not to be true. In 1970, racially integrated USC trounced Alabama's lily-white players on the field, 42-21. Afterward, the beaten legendary Alabama coach "Bear" Bryant approached USC's coach John McKay. "Coach McKay," said Bryant, "where do you get such wonderful guards and tackles?" To which McKay responded, "We get 'em from Alabama."



Bryant – who had arranged that game with coach McKay, allegedly offering USC $250,000 to come to Alabama and play – then pushed his university for black recruitment and athletic scholarships. Bryant got what he wanted. The following season, Alabama had black starters. By 1973, one-third of Alabama starters were black.

Of that historic 1970 game, "Bear" Bryant assistant Jerry Claiborne said that Alabama native Sam Cunningham, one of USC's great black running backs (who rushed for 135 yards and scored two touchdowns that day), "did more to integrate Alabama in 60 minutes than Martin Luther King had in 20 years."

Final score: America 1, Victicrats 0.

Great story. Now what about some affirmative action for white running backs?

Lesbian white chick Wiccan running back.

But enough about me.

Desperately trying to conjure up an image on that.

Don't bust a vessel, rosey. I'm as likely to be Wiccan, lesbian or a football player as I am actually to watch -- horrors -- a football game.

Oh the horror, athletic men in tight pants.

[Read in your best Homer Simpson voice]

Ccchhheeerrrllleeaaddeeerrrssssss.

(Cheerleaders for those unused to reading things as Homer likes to draw them out.)

You need a little spittle drooling out the corner of your mouth to complete the effect.

I'm set.

Season tickets along with my Scout.Com, Wildcat Insider, CBS Sports and Arizona Fox Sport News membership preferences all set and already giving me daily updates as Arizona NCAA Football session nears to be closely followed by Arizona NCAA Basketball session. That and my subscription to Sports Illustrated in good standing and life will be all good again, in spite of the indigestion and ulcers threatened by this same good life.

Coach Stoops has a recruiting class ranking of 19th this year. That’s FANTASTIC when you take into account the several years of losing seasons under Coach Mackovic and then with Stoops under Mackovic’s players and recruits he’s had to work with. In spite of all that, the team’s improved a little each year. If we stay on the curve, this year will be primarily a Stoops team and could well be our time to venture back into the Bowl berths after so many years being absent. One can only dream of a resurgence of the “Desert Swarm” defense with a more than competent offense under second year Rising Star Qback Willie Tuitama. This year he starts us off. Last year he came in late in the season and pulled us back up by our boot straps before being injured in a late season game against the Washington Huskies.

Jeeze! I’m getting pumped up just writing about it! Can hardly wait!
(Spittle included)

I'm ready. I hope we rate some Cat games on TV. I had scout.com for a while, but dropped it in favor of freebie stuff you have to work for. Fantasy football draft in my free league this Sunday, and keeper league in a couple weeks.

And I think the Raiders play in the HOF game.

LIFE CAN BE GOOD AGAIN!

Praise be.

I must admit, life outside of football season sometimes seems like it isn't worth the effort. Having football on the weekends makes life bearable. (that and temps dropping under 101)

The only thing better is all the above and your team is winning. Shoot, I even let my wife talk me into watching some Arizona Heat games this season just to watch some live sports. Yes, I admit it but refuse to give up my man card. I even watched Team USA whip-em really ugly like but it got me outside in the hot fresh air for awhile. I don't know if it's Tucson Eelctric Park but during the few Sidewinder games I've been to this season it's been hotter than all-get-go and so I haven't gone to as many. I think the setting at Randolf Park has you shaded better from the afternoon sun.

Yes, indeed, football season has begun.

Champions and UEFA 'qualifying' games are afoot.

Wait . . . wrong 'football'

Hey!!No fooling around..this is serious stuff...

University of Arizona pulled a victory out of a dark and smelly place with a last second field goal kick to beat BYU 16 to 13. Yes, I was in the stands acting like it was all planned that way from the begining. Still trying to figure out why we were still trying to establish a non-existent run late in the fourth and deep in our own territory. But then again, I'm not a highly touted college footbal coach or even an offensive coordinator.

Next staurday it's on the road to face those whimps at LSU. Ooooh..boy....I'm stocking up on anti-acids now.

LSU may hurt, but a heavy test now may benefit the guys more than an NAU gimme game. Maybe they'll let Tuitama loose this game. Nothing to lose.

Except it should be more like “let the offensive line loose the game". We couldn't establish the running game against BYU because the offensive line stayed in the locker room. None of the called slots opened up and as a result our backs had no where to go. Chris Henry's yardage, Bless him, he didn't fumble once, came when he said "O-shooot!" or something like that and on his own reversed course away from the entire BYU primary and secondary line busting through and almost broke for a TD. But it wasn't through the slot he was supposed to go through because it wasn't open. Hence Willy went to the air and had such little time to execute that he was transmitting who he was going to throw to the moment he had the ball in his hand.

Coach Stoops reportedly had upwards of four freshmen on that line. Maybe a reshuffle is in the program.

With something resembling an offensive line, we can be respectable at LSU.

Texas v Ohio tomorrow night.

A freshman line may be perfect. Give them time to bulk up and jell at the right time. Not many lineman come out early, so I figure at least we get four years from them. O-Line is probably the biggest true skill position outside of QB.

Ahh......the voice of reason. Then there's POST GAME INSANITY!!!....one...way...or...another.

I've been looking forward to football season for months. But tomorrow's game may be something to forget.

AV, Rene

Sorry about what happened to Arizona at the hands of LSU.

Wish my alma mater (Air Force) had actually done what it almost did - although being one point down to Tennessee was huge (3 touchdown underdogs prior to the game) and even more no injuries (Tennessee's Inky Johnson just got his bell rung hard). Too bad I don't have ESPN Game Day service - I think that would have been a good one to watch. Our first home gam is not until the 30th this year.

Broncos need to figure out how to start fast - this we'll get going after a first game loss stuff sucks.

LSU was just a lot better. We fired a decent coach, hired a bad one, then a novice to heac coaching. Now we're starting from scratch.

I warned people when they let the last coach (Dick Tomey) go.

I own Mike Bell in my fantasy league and Shanahan did the usual two-step over starters. But the Broncos are likely to bounce back. At least it wasn't a home game.

Hi again. Back from my fasting seclusion in a rat and spider infested cave in the Rincon Mountains flaying myself repeatedly trying to regain my Ying and Yang after the public fanny spanking that my Wildcats got at the hands of LSU.

After leaving the cave and being able to pick-up on news again I learn that Willie suffered a concussion with the early helmet to helmet shot he took and apparently didn’t say anything. The coaches should’ve picked up on something being wrong with him consistently disagreeing with his receivers what routes they were suppose to run. Fortunately, he was pulled before another cheap shot and more serious damage being done. I heard from family out east who are Auburn fans that an LSU player did the same shot at their QB during their game. Coincidence? I would hope so.

Willy did a lot better when he was sent in the 4th quarter against Stephen F. Austin, putting two T.Ds. on the scoreboard to expand on a tenuous four point lead but then again, Tucson High could possibly make a game of it with them. The evening’s highlighter was Chris Jennings making his debut and breaking all school rushing records for a starting game with 201 yards on 26 carries. Seems Chris Henry, our normal starter got crosswise with some rules and coaches and earned a one game suspension which gave Chris Jennings a starting shot and which may have now cost Chris Henry his starting slot against USC. It’s been a long while since this team has had a double threat at the running back position. I can now only hope all remain healthy.

I’ll still be in the stands on Saturday yelling my lungs out for an upset over USC, come rain or shine. Then maybe back to the cave.

Jennings looked pretty good. Do you know what Henry did to be out a game? It was a game we could afford. A good time to make a statement on rules.

I'm not expecting anything on Saturday. USC is bigger, stronger and faster, but a couple lucky plays aren't out of the question. With freshman on the line I worry about the health of our backs, but it bodes well for the next couple years. If those linemen bulk up and become a cohesive unit we could do some damage in the future. I hope they back up Stoops long enough for him to get it going.

Don't know what Henry did. Stoops is still mums about it and didn't let the media get to Henry on Monday.

We do have one weakness in common with USC. Their QB is a newbie that's only played in three games and hasn't felt much pressure. I hear the game plan is to try and change that situation and see if he gets rattled under pressure. Holms says he's up for it.

Who knows...Desert Swarm started off with little steps getting better and better as they went. All I want is a team willing to buck up to the line and give it their best.

Just as well, no need to embarrass the kid.



Standard strategy, blitz the rookie. Counteract it with a small playbook and quick hitters. Screens and draws until he gets his bearings.

I'd throw deep a time or two to mix it up, but most coaches don't.

This could be ugly for a while, but changing coaches again would be a nightmare. Stoops is as good as we're likely to get.

Yeah. Some idiot already slammed Stoops and suggested, in yesterday's star letters to the editor, that he'd be out if she were the university president for a comment he made on scheduling a weaker schedule next year or something to that effect. Already, the fair weather fans are grumbling. He's still got two more years of solid backing by me. His boys should be seasoned veterans by then and then there are no excuses for not consistently putting out winning seasons.