et al,
The questioning the real situation in Iraq one usually starts with a few contributors that express some skepticism about the way in which success is portrayed by the Administration. This is generally rewarded with recriminations and even dismissal based on biased oratory and ad Hominem attacks. I would like to alter this scenario, often replayed in many discussion groups, in favor of positive discussion on what is going right and what is really important in terms of stabilizing Iraq.
Most Resepctfully,
Rocco Rosano
Reynoldsburg, OH
prosano@insight.rr.com
Full Version: Iraq: Secure or Not Secure - That is the Question
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I wonder what secure really means. What do we compare the current situation to? How come there haven't been any attacks in the US? I would think if Iraq really made things worse there would have been some action on the home front. But nothing, not even a sniper. Nobody expected that two years ago.
Someone posted the front pages from the NYT after WWII. A lot of people were complaining about the lack of success long after that war as well. I just don't see how many good options we have. History is full of instances of doing nothing just postponing the greater agony for everyone.
I see a lot of bad reports from the Sunni triangle, but I wonder what is really happening elsewhere.
Someone posted the front pages from the NYT after WWII. A lot of people were complaining about the lack of success long after that war as well. I just don't see how many good options we have. History is full of instances of doing nothing just postponing the greater agony for everyone.
I see a lot of bad reports from the Sunni triangle, but I wonder what is really happening elsewhere.
Everything is relative.
QUOTE (RoccoR @ Sep 24 2004, 04:28 PM)
et al,
The questioning the real situation in Iraq one usually starts with a few contributors that express some skepticism about the way in which success is portrayed by the Administration. This is generally rewarded with recriminations and even dismissal based on biased oratory and ad Hominem attacks. I would like to alter this scenario, often replayed in many discussion groups, in favor of positive discussion on what is going right and what is really important in terms of stabilizing Iraq.
Most Resepctfully,
Rocco Rosano
Reynoldsburg, OH
prosano@insight.rr.com
The questioning the real situation in Iraq one usually starts with a few contributors that express some skepticism about the way in which success is portrayed by the Administration. This is generally rewarded with recriminations and even dismissal based on biased oratory and ad Hominem attacks. I would like to alter this scenario, often replayed in many discussion groups, in favor of positive discussion on what is going right and what is really important in terms of stabilizing Iraq.
Most Resepctfully,
Rocco Rosano
Reynoldsburg, OH
prosano@insight.rr.com
It's very difficult to see what, if anything is going right with Iraq. News from sources other than the usual portray a very different story. There are a lot of sites on the net that give a real look at the situation there from the IRAQI point of view. It is horrendous. We dont need to go into detail as to what our media outlets are saying; it is not real by any stretch of the imagination. My thoughts are with the poor innocents of the country (in addition to our troops and their families). Much, much pain and suffering and death is taking place. The only thing I can figure is to get the whole world involved as a colition to establish a new infrastructure there, put the Iraqis back to work and to set and maintain a peaceful invironment.
The whole world isn't going to get involved. Most of the world doesn't even care.
The world didn't care when sanctions were killing 5,000 a month, but then the Un had oil for food kickbacks and France, germany and Russia had oil and weapons contracts with Saddam.
et al,
I am not sure this relates to the point of discussion.
This may or may not be an argument supporting the reasoning for the Iraq War (Humanitarian Grounds), since all the other reasons have been significantly degraded or proven to be built on false information. But it has little to do with the situation in Iraq today; unless one asked the question about Iraqi Insurgents and their gratitude.
In today’s news, I saw this story.
(OBSERVATION)
Who is correct? When PM Allawi says he needs MORE troops and the US President says the Commander in Iraq John Abizaid has not raised the possibility – who should we believe?
At the same time:
And,
OR
Is this not to be considered? Or, how do we account for this?
Very Respectfully
I am not sure this relates to the point of discussion.
QUOTE (spannerb @ Sep 24 2004, 08:50 PM)
The world didn't care when sanctions were killing 5,000 a month, but then the Un had oil for food kickbacks and France, germany and Russia had oil and weapons contracts with Saddam.
This may or may not be an argument supporting the reasoning for the Iraq War (Humanitarian Grounds), since all the other reasons have been significantly degraded or proven to be built on false information. But it has little to do with the situation in Iraq today; unless one asked the question about Iraqi Insurgents and their gratitude.
In today’s news, I saw this story.
QUOTE
RACINE, Wis. (Reuters) - President Bush on Friday accused Sen. John Kerry of attacking the credibility of Iraq's leader and branded his Democratic rival unfit to lead America.
Bush lashed out at Kerry a day after the Democrat charged that upbeat comments about Iraq by the president and Iraqi interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi were glossing over the problems in the war-torn country.
"You can't lead this country if your ally in Iraq feels like you questioned his credibility," Bush said during a bus tour in this battleground state.
Bush lashed out at Kerry a day after the Democrat charged that upbeat comments about Iraq by the president and Iraqi interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi were glossing over the problems in the war-torn country.
"You can't lead this country if your ally in Iraq feels like you questioned his credibility," Bush said during a bus tour in this battleground state.
(OBSERVATION)
- The President is saying that Prime Minister Allawi is “risking his life for a free Iraq -- which helps America.”
- ``We need more assistance for the multinational force, and we need a broadening base of troop-contributing countries to that force, so that we would be more determined and better equipped to confront terrorism and provide security protection for the United Nations and other agencies when they return to Iraq,'' Allawi said in New York at the UN General Assembly.
- When asked about the need for additional troops in Iraq, Bush said that US Commander in Iraq John Abizaid has not raised the possibility of deploying more troops in Iraq.
Who is correct? When PM Allawi says he needs MORE troops and the US President says the Commander in Iraq John Abizaid has not raised the possibility – who should we believe?
At the same time:
- BBC - Friday, 24 September, 2004, The Muslim Council of Britain has sent representatives to Iraq to try to secure the release of British hostage Ken Bigley.
- BAGHDAD, 25 September 2004 — Gunmen abducted six Egyptians and four Iraqis (ten in all) working for the country’s mobile phone company, seizing two in a bold raid on the firm’s Baghdad office and the others outside the capital.
And,
- “If I can have peace … today, I have enough money to do all the major work in Baghdad,” Maj. Gen. Peter Chiarelli, commanding general of the 1st Cavalry Division, said. “We can do so much … to turn around the deplorable conditions there are in many portions of the city.”
Recent violence in Al Thawra, Haifa Street, and in other areas of Baghdad has caused concern about whether the 1st Cavalry Division can continue to focus on providing assistance for civil military projects.
There were over 15,000 people in Al Thawra (suburb of Baghdad) employed on reconstruction projects in early August. Some of those projects were shut down for two-weeks when violence broke out between Iraqi insurgents and Multi-National Forces last month.
OR
Is this not to be considered? Or, how do we account for this?
Very Respectfully
Consider the situation in Iraq AND at home. Don't expect too much too soon. I'm not sure that a civil war would even be the worst thing for us. We could degrade a lot of our enemies without lifting a finger.
Just a thought.
Just a thought.
Tom Friedman made note of something interesting on Imus this AM.
When the Ayatollah Whatshisname issued the fatwah on Salmon Rushdie, loads of local mosques followed suit. Arab media spread his picture around like a wanted poster.
As bin Laden kills 3000 non-combatants and Zarkawie saws off heads, there has not been a SINGLE religious edict condemning them.
When the Ayatollah Whatshisname issued the fatwah on Salmon Rushdie, loads of local mosques followed suit. Arab media spread his picture around like a wanted poster.
As bin Laden kills 3000 non-combatants and Zarkawie saws off heads, there has not been a SINGLE religious edict condemning them.
QUOTE (Ward @ Sep 24 2004, 11:46 PM)
As bin Laden kills 3000 non-combatants and Zarkawie saws off heads, there has not been a SINGLE religious edict condemning them.
That is rather worrisome.
Perhaps they have not commented on it for fear that their comments would cement the impression that this is a religous conflict.
More troops are more targets. I was reading somewhere that every major capture involved CIA types. My guess is infitrators are in less danger than regular troops riding around in Humvees. Special forces are a good idea maybe, but more Americans just running around are likely to get killed.
I don't think there is much more to do in Afghanistan. It's always been pretty much the way it is now. A dump full of petty warlords and a couple civilized cities.
I don't think there is much more to do in Afghanistan. It's always been pretty much the way it is now. A dump full of petty warlords and a couple civilized cities.
I could have waited on Iraq, but once there I'm glad we took out Saddam fast. Now it's time to get the Iraqis fixing their own country. A lot of what is wrong in Iraq now, was wrong before. If the middle third of the country wants to blow itself up at some point we have to let them.
SB-I'd not have gone into Iraq until we were well organized and stablized in Afghanistan. Now that we are there, we have to finish up before we can let the troops come home but we can't let them continue going it alone and with little support.[/font]
[/quote]
I remember the joy the US policymakers took in the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. We and our allies throughout the world were damn happy to send aid and arms to the locals and watch the Red Army twist in the wind.
For the many government that have voiced concerns that American hegemony must be opposed, a similar strategy may come to mind.
[/quote]
I remember the joy the US policymakers took in the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. We and our allies throughout the world were damn happy to send aid and arms to the locals and watch the Red Army twist in the wind.
For the many government that have voiced concerns that American hegemony must be opposed, a similar strategy may come to mind.
Proxy war is hell.
The Soviets lost a lot more soldiers than we have, even though we gave plenty of warning and the Soviets gave none at all. I don't know how much we helped outside of some Stingers. i recall seeing many of the mujahedeen armed with home made guns handed down from previous generations. I don't see Afghanistan ever being "conquered" because there just isn't much worth the effort.
Iraq is a different story altogether. The Kurds are fine without Saddam. The South is a pit, but at least they will get clean water, schools and hospitals. The Sunni triangle will be a bitch though. Added to by the foreign fighters that don't care if Iraq is rebuilt.
The Soviets lost a lot more soldiers than we have, even though we gave plenty of warning and the Soviets gave none at all. I don't know how much we helped outside of some Stingers. i recall seeing many of the mujahedeen armed with home made guns handed down from previous generations. I don't see Afghanistan ever being "conquered" because there just isn't much worth the effort.
Iraq is a different story altogether. The Kurds are fine without Saddam. The South is a pit, but at least they will get clean water, schools and hospitals. The Sunni triangle will be a bitch though. Added to by the foreign fighters that don't care if Iraq is rebuilt.
QUOTE (spannerb @ Sep 25 2004, 06:19 PM)
Proxy war is hell.
So is "society building"
What is unnerving is all the talk I hear from politicians of all stripes, and nice folks like Rocco, saying we cannot cut and run. It appears that the minimum condition for withdrawal is a stable democracy friendly to the West--something unprecedented in the Middle East.
This standard might be too high. Our troopers should not pay a price in blood for the intellectual intransigence of our policymakers.
QUOTE (Ward @ Sep 25 2004, 08:48 PM)
So is "society building"
What is unnerving is all the talk I hear from politicians of all stripes, and nice folks like Rocco, saying we cannot cut and run. It appears that the minimum condition for withdrawal is a stable democracy friendly to the West--something unprecedented in the Middle East.
This standard might be too high. Our troopers should not pay a price in blood for the intellectual intransigence of our policymakers.
What is unnerving is all the talk I hear from politicians of all stripes, and nice folks like Rocco, saying we cannot cut and run. It appears that the minimum condition for withdrawal is a stable democracy friendly to the West--something unprecedented in the Middle East.
This standard might be too high. Our troopers should not pay a price in blood for the intellectual intransigence of our policymakers.
Even the lefties bought into the notion of "you broke it you fix it". I'm more for the hit and run style myself.
QUOTE (SpaceCowboy @ Sep 25 2004, 06:53 PM)
Even the lefties bought into the notion of "you broke it you fix it". I'm more for the hit and run style myself.
All we want is a steady flow of oil and somebody to write a check to who won't use the petrofunds to fly planes into skyscrapers or develop nuclear weapons. Apparently this is asking too much.
The radical Islamists don't care if they get a check. Like the Taliban they would prefer starvation for their neighbors, wives and children to doing business with infidels. But their backwards ways have made it impossible for them to survive without western expertise. Oil has been a blessing and a curse, and at some point the blessing point will be gone completely.
I heard that average Saudis haven't gotten a real raise in their share of the oil money trust fund since the 70s, and none of them know how to do anything for themselves. All the workers and techs are from elsewhere. I can't imagine it's much different anywhere else in the Mid East.
I heard that average Saudis haven't gotten a real raise in their share of the oil money trust fund since the 70s, and none of them know how to do anything for themselves. All the workers and techs are from elsewhere. I can't imagine it's much different anywhere else in the Mid East.
QUOTE (spannerb @ Sep 25 2004, 07:19 PM)
The radical Islamists don't care if they get a check. Like the Taliban they would prefer starvation for their neighbors, wives and children to doing business with infidels. But their backwards ways have made it impossible for them to survive without western expertise. Oil has been a blessing and a curse, and at some point the blessing point will be gone completely.
I heard that average Saudis haven't gotten a real raise in their share of the oil money trust fund since the 70s, and none of them know how to do anything for themselves. All the workers and techs are from elsewhere. I can't imagine it's much different anywhere else in the Mid East.
I heard that average Saudis haven't gotten a real raise in their share of the oil money trust fund since the 70s, and none of them know how to do anything for themselves. All the workers and techs are from elsewhere. I can't imagine it's much different anywhere else in the Mid East.
So what made the Office of Special Plans think they could build democracies in Afghanistan and Iraq (simultaneously), and why is the United States committed to this wildly optimistic vision?
I'm not sure they expected to get a real western style democracy in Afghanistan. It was take out the Taliban first and foremost. Revenge is an ugly word, but it fits.
I'm sure militarily nobody figured to we'd lose to Saddam, but I do recall a lot of people thought it would be a LOT more difficult. Winning the peace is a bitch I'll admit, but as an entire strategy I'd say the WOT/WOI is being fought by the military in foreign lands and not by "first responders" here at home.
I can't say for sure what might have happened had we taken other courses of action. Maybe I can get friend Judy in here to tell me.
(and thanks for coming around. for a first day we got quite a few posts)
I'm sure militarily nobody figured to we'd lose to Saddam, but I do recall a lot of people thought it would be a LOT more difficult. Winning the peace is a bitch I'll admit, but as an entire strategy I'd say the WOT/WOI is being fought by the military in foreign lands and not by "first responders" here at home.
I can't say for sure what might have happened had we taken other courses of action. Maybe I can get friend Judy in here to tell me.
(and thanks for coming around. for a first day we got quite a few posts)
The plan is pretty obvious and it could ultimately work. Maybe it's a little ambitious, but Iraq is a great central location in which to centralize operations and from which to expand. The only way some of those ME countries are going to progress is to let the people control them.
It really does require resolve. Ambitious is the word, but the Islamists have ambitious plans as well. There aren't a lot of hardcore terrorists, but there certainly are a lot of Islamic fence sitters who will be emboldened by any sign of weakness on our part.
QUOTE (Bart Katz @ Sep 25 2004, 10:06 PM)
The plan is pretty obvious and it could ultimately work. Maybe it's a little ambitious, but Iraq is a great central location in which to centralize operations and from which to expand. The only way some of those ME countries are going to progress is to let the people control them.
The plan sounded good to me too, at the time. Americans are good at a lot of things, but one of them is not colonizing foreign countries. We aren't very good at understanding other cultures, either.
So if the Office of Speical Plans has vastly overestimated the ability of the Iraqi people to govern themselves, what's the backup plan?
I just don't think it's wise to make such statements out of hand.
It's not a colonizing thing. You have to get past that idea to see how things can work.
As for the Iraqi people and their ability to govern, we need to wait for the election results and see how that works out too.
I just don't think it's wise to make such statements out of hand.
It's not a colonizing thing. You have to get past that idea to see how things can work.
As for the Iraqi people and their ability to govern, we need to wait for the election results and see how that works out too.
I just don't think it's wise to make such statements out of hand.
QUOTE (spannerb @ Sep 25 2004, 10:13 PM)
It really does require resolve. Ambitious is the word, but the Islamists have ambitious plans as well. There aren't a lot of hardcore terrorists, but there certainly are a lot of Islamic fence sitters who will be emboldened by any sign of weakness on our part.
Resolve is an interesting word.
We can resolve to quit smoking individually or resolve collectively to win a war.
But it is inappropriate to resolve someone else to quit smoking; or conditionally link the outcomes of our collective resolve on the presumed cooperation of disinterested or hostile parties.
Different definition of the word, Ward.
QUOTE (Bart Katz @ Sep 25 2004, 10:38 PM)
Different definition of the word, Ward.
Really?
How much resolve is required on the part of the United States for the Iraqis to function as a civilized nation?
QUOTE (Ward @ Sep 26 2004, 12:47 AM)
Really?
How much resolve is required on the part of the United States for the Iraqis to function as a civilized nation?
How much resolve is required on the part of the United States for the Iraqis to function as a civilized nation?
First you have to understand the difference between the way you used the word and the way Art and I used it.
QUOTE (Bart Katz @ Sep 25 2004, 10:48 PM)
First you have to understand the difference between the way you used the word and the way Art and I used it.
Explain your own use if you want.
I'll wait for Arturo to speak for himself.
It ain't like New Year's resolutions or resoving to quit smoking., That's just misleading. Even Congressional "resolutions" don't call for action. They just make a statement of belief.
As for the Iraqi people and their ability to govern, we need to wait for the election results and see how that works out
I gotta go with Bart on this one. We do need to wait to see what happens in the election. Hopefully, once the people see that they have an input in their government, things may settle down some. Hopefully...
I gotta go with Bart on this one. We do need to wait to see what happens in the election. Hopefully, once the people see that they have an input in their government, things may settle down some. Hopefully...
I think everyone has some modicum of resolve. Now we have to prove the US and our Iraqi allies have more than the terrorists and their allies. It isn't just up to us anymore. I'd like to see the Iraqis take more responsibility, but they are going to need at least until their elections and a transition period.
In the meantime we have to at least look like we have resolve and are united. Allowing defeatists to give comfort to the enemy for political points is a huge mistake.
In the meantime we have to at least look like we have resolve and are united. Allowing defeatists to give comfort to the enemy for political points is a huge mistake.
QUOTE (Loclynn @ Sep 25 2004, 10:55 PM)
As for the Iraqi people and their ability to govern, we need to wait for the election results and see how that works out
I gotta go with Bart on this one. We do need to wait to see what happens in the election. Hopefully, once the people see that they have an input in their government, things may settle down some. Hopefully...
I gotta go with Bart on this one. We do need to wait to see what happens in the election. Hopefully, once the people see that they have an input in their government, things may settle down some. Hopefully...
What makes anyone think that meaningful elections will take place? You cannot honestly think Sunni and foreign militiants are going to honor the results.
I'd like to see the Iraqis take more responsibility
Bingo!
Bingo!
QUOTE (Ward @ Sep 26 2004, 01:09 AM)
What makes anyone think that meaningful elections will take place? You cannot honestly think Sunni and foreign militiants are going to honor the results.
Nobody said that, Ward. Loc and I both said we need to wait and see. If you want to preach gloom and doom, fine. Others are allowed to be a little optomistic or at least take a "positive" wait and see stance.
It's like the definitions. If you don't want to get on the same page with the rest of the band (discussion terms wise), it makes for lousy music.
QUOTE (Bart Katz @ Sep 25 2004, 11:13 PM)
Nobody said that, Ward. Loc and I both said we need to wait and see. If you want to preach gloom and doom, fine. Others are allowed to be a little optomistic or at least take a "positive" wait and see stance.
It's like the definitions. If you don't want to get on the same page with the rest of the band (discussion terms wise), it makes for lousy music.
It's like the definitions. If you don't want to get on the same page with the rest of the band (discussion terms wise), it makes for lousy music.
I'm truly hoping that a good election there will be a psycological balm to the people. They are the ones who need a strong boost to jumpstart action on their own behalf. As of now, most of them cower in their homes. We can't do anything for them in this area. They need to take control.
QUOTE (spannerb @ Sep 25 2004, 11:06 PM)
I think everyone has some modicum of resolve. Now we have to prove the US and our Iraqi allies have more than the terrorists and their allies. It isn't just up to us anymore. I'd like to see the Iraqis take more responsibility, but they are going to need at least until their elections and a transition period.
In the meantime we have to at least look like we have resolve and are united. Allowing defeatists to give comfort to the enemy for political points is a huge mistake.
In the meantime we have to at least look like we have resolve and are united. Allowing defeatists to give comfort to the enemy for political points is a huge mistake.
"It" never was entirely up to us. The plans included Iraqis reacting in one way, and they reacted in an unanticipated way.
To "look like we have resolve" has some strategic merit, but is starting to make us look like blockheads. The disconnect between the spin ["we're turning the corner!"] and the reality is no longer credible.
I'm concerned that "resolve" becomes intransigence to a flawed position, precluding alternative strategies.
QUOTE (Ward @ Sep 25 2004, 11:21 PM)
"It" never was entirely up to us. The plans included Iraqis reacting in one way, and they reacted in an unanticipated way.
To "look like we have resolve" has some strategic merit, but is starting to make us look like blockheads. The disconnect between the spin ["we're turning the corner!"] and the reality is no longer credible.
I'm concerned that "resolve" becomes intransigence to a flawed position, precluding alternative strategies.
To "look like we have resolve" has some strategic merit, but is starting to make us look like blockheads. The disconnect between the spin ["we're turning the corner!"] and the reality is no longer credible.
I'm concerned that "resolve" becomes intransigence to a flawed position, precluding alternative strategies.
I'd say 'stand by' would be a better slogan as it is now over there.
Maybe you've paid too much attention to the hype, from all sides in this. There are always alternatives and contingencies, but you don't use them until you really need to.
QUOTE (Ward @ Sep 26 2004, 06:21 AM)
"It" never was entirely up to us. The plans included Iraqis reacting in one way, and they reacted in an unanticipated way.
I think some did and some didn't. If you'll notice most of the trouble is concentrated rather than nationwide.
I can see the point about new strategies, I just don't think we're there yet. We can still tweak the tactics before resorting to wholesale changes.
I'm past the point of rational thought. Thanks so much for the interesting debate. I wish HH/Mizilus had come by to abuse me a bit. I'm afraid there is way too much civility around here today
It is a different feel without tons of spam and less posters, but I had a good time. Thanks again and see you later.
Like I said, we need to just wait and see, and be ready to offer what assistance we can (it may not be much) It is really up to the Iraqi people now.
The UN will help if they see there's some money in it.
The UN...ptoooy! <wipes mouth>
QUOTE (Loclynn @ Sep 25 2004, 11:31 PM)
Like I said, we need to just wait and see, and be ready to offer what assistance we can (it may not be much) It is really up to the Iraqi people now.
It really is NOT up the Iraqi people. If the Iraqi people fall back into a habit of letting a strongman or Islamist regime collect petrodollars to support jihad against the West, that is NOT an acceptable outcome.
More worrysome is the coverse, that the Iraqi people are not UP to the task. If it weren't for the oil, we could bolt faster than Lebanon or Somalia. It's only because of the oil that the Pottery Barn rules [you break it, you own it] apply .
IF
QUOTE (Ward @ Sep 25 2004, 11:43 PM)
It really is NOT up the Iraqi people. If the Iraqi people fall back into a habit of letting a strongman or Islamist regime collect petrodollars to support jihad against the West, that is NOT an acceptable outcome.
More worrysome is the coverse, that the Iraqi people are not UP to the task. If it weren't for the oil, we could bolt faster than Lebanon or Somalia. It's only because of the oil that the Pottery Barn rules [you break it, you own it] apply .
More worrysome is the coverse, that the Iraqi people are not UP to the task. If it weren't for the oil, we could bolt faster than Lebanon or Somalia. It's only because of the oil that the Pottery Barn rules [you break it, you own it] apply .
Then it seems that we are stuck over there one way or another. We go, terrorists get the oil money. We stay, more terror. What do you suggest?
Seems like most of the time if one stops to consider all the if's, the one doesn't ever take any action at all. Not enough time left.
QUOTE (Bart Katz @ Sep 25 2004, 11:54 PM)
Seems like most of the time if one stops to consider all the if's, the one doesn't ever take any action at all. Not enough time left.
Yes. One can procrastinate oneself into oblivion like that.
QUOTE (Loclynn @ Sep 25 2004, 11:48 PM)
Then it seems that we are stuck over there one way or another. We go, terrorists get the oil money. We stay, more terror. What do you suggest?
It might become neccessary to do with Fallujah and a few other cities what was done with German cities. We never really "took" the Sunni triangle, thanks to the Turks not permitting US troops access from the north. It would be very ugly, but so is the resistance freely operating in those areas.
Another possiblity is withdrawal.
Possibilities?
How about some really solid solutions?
How about some really solid solutions?
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